If there was one single theme to this off-season for the NBA it was ‘change’ not only was there quite a bit of significant player movement, but the league itself underwent a makeover of sorts, finally expanding to a 30th franchise, and realigning to six divisions of five teams each. Of course the biggest headlines this off-season surrounded the ongoing saga that has become the Los Angeles Lakers. Basically the Lakers surrendered to Kobe, and he got all that he asked for – namely the exit of Shaq, and Phil Jackson.
Shadowed by the Shaq move to Miami was what could end up being an even bigger deal with Tracy Mcgrady going from Orlando to Houston for Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley. Many speculate that the tandem of Mcgrady and Yao Ming will be the new Shaq-Kobe, but what is being overlooked is the potential for Steve Francis to re-establish himself as “the franchise”. Other moves of note this off-season, was Phoenix getting a whole new back court of Steve Nash and Quentin Richardson, Dallas having wholesale changes after losing out on Nash in the open market, they proceeded to unload Antawn Jamison and Antione Walker, and replaced Nash with Jason Terry and rookie Devin Harris and replaced 6th man Jamison with Jerry Stackhouse. One very interesting move that went relatively unheralded was the trade of Al Harrington from Indiana to Atlanta for Stephen Jackson. Both players and teams should benefit greatly from this trade, especially Indiana, as it now allows Reggie Miller to come of the bench. Then of course there are the defending world champion Detroit Pistons who by all indications should be even stronger this year, having Rasheed Wallace for a whole season, as well as adding Antonio McDyess and Derrick Coleman to their bench both of whom would probably start for some teams plus if they get anything at all out of last years lottery pick Darko Milicic it would be a bonus.
When all is said and done this season all of the shuffling will have gotten a lot of teams closer, and it might have closed some gaps, but come next summer the final four should be very similar to what it has been recently, Detroit is still the team to beat in the East, and Indiana is the only team with a chance to do so. In the West San Antonio will once again be a force, and Minnesota should continue its recent success behind perennial MVP candidate Kevin Garnett.
2004 Forecast:
Atlantic Division
Knicks - Marbury is a sleeper for MVP, will not miss Allan Houston at all
Celtics - Payton will be on a mission to regain some status, Pierce another MVP candidate
Nets - Losses of Martin & Kittles too big to overcome
Raptors - How high a ceiling can Bosh have on such a small frame
76ers - Iverson will be demanding a trade by January
Central Division
Pistons - Biggest question is if they can sustain the ‘drive to win’
Pacers - Should be even closer this year
Cavaliers - In either other eastern division would contend for 1st
Bulls - Slowly getting better, very slowly and really did they have anywhere else to go
Bucks - Will be tough to follow up on last years success
Southeast Division
Heat - Shaq alone makes them contenders – look for Eddie Jones to re-emerge as all star
Magic - Francis looks to return to Stevie Franchise days
Hawks - Have some potential young talent, Harrington one of favorites for most improved
Wizards - They are just treading water, and should be very afraid of Bobcats passing them quickly
Bobcats - They have to start somewhere, couldn’t have asked for a better division
Southwest Division
Spurs - Adding Barry for depth gives them just another weapon
Rockets - Will be interesting to watch how it unfolds
Mavericks - New look Mav’s probably not any better, still won’t stop anyone defensively
Grizzlies - Have made great strides, but will be harder to take next step
Hornets - Biggest victims of the realignment
Northwest Division
T-wolves - This could be their year may have to be
Nuggets - Quietly have put together one of best starting 5 in league
Trailblazers - How long before they shake up the roster even more
Sonics - Have to decide what kind of team they want to be, and then commit to it
Jazz - Kirilenko is easily the most unheralded player in the league
Pacific Division
Kings - Still have one run left in them
Suns - Are well on their way to being ‘the next team’
Lakers - New look Lakers are in for some surprises
Clippers - Clippers will battle Warriors and Wizards to stay ahead of Bobcats
Warriors - See Clippers
Eastern Conference Finals:
Pacers over Pistons
Western Conference Finals:
Timberwolves over Spurs
Finals:
Pacers over Timberwolves
MVP:
Favorite: Kevin Garnett, Twolves
Sleeper: Stephon Marbury, Knicks
Defensive Player of the Year:
Favorite: Ben Wallace, Pistons
Sleeper: Andrei Kirilinko, Jazz
Most Improved Player:
Favorite: Al Harrington, Hawks
Sleeper: Drew Gooden, Cavaliers
Sixth Man:
Favorite: Bobby Jackson, Kings
Sleeper: Joe Johnson, Suns
Scoring Champion:
Favorite: Kobe Bryant, Lakers
Sleeper: Shaquille O’Neal, Heat
Rookie of the Year:
Favorite: Dwight Howard, Magic
Sleeper: J.R. Smith, Hornets
Coach of the Year:
Favorite: Stan Van Gundy, Heat
Sleeper: Lenny Wilkens, Knicks
